We have already mentioned in one article that the new government measures on encouraging the purchase with a 200 euro loan could potentially mine the housing market, but the fact is that the markets of Southeast Europe are exaggerated and we were all warned several years ago by a famous doctor of economics from American University of Ohio, Bulgarian Krasimir Petrov.
This expert estimates property values by the two basic indicators used in the West, namely the ratio of rental and property prices and the ratio of prices to average income households.
The first indicator is generated in a way that the annual rent is divided by sale prices, and thus you get the return on investment. The American practice of normal return is 10-12%. Return of 15-20% means that the property is probably undervalued, while 6-8% or lower means that a property is overvalued and the entire market bubble could burst. If we take into account the fact that in recent years we have have reported figures of 3-4% throughout the region, it is quite clear in which position we are in. Average square meter for apartments in Croatia is 1818 euros, and rent has been the same for years, so the indicator is 3,5.
Another indicator (the ratio of prices and household income) shows how many annual gross earnings are required to purchase a property. If you need one, it’s an undervalued property, two show a normal price, and three indicate an overestimated value. In Croatia, the average gross salary is 1070 euros, and if we consider that we have two working adults per household, for a flat of 65 square meters with the earlier mentioned price of 1818 euros, a household needs to set aside 118,170 euros. This means that for such an apartment five years of savings are needed, and if we consider already three years mean that the property is overvalued, the conclusion about the property prices in Croatia imposes itself. To conclude, according to Petrov and his formula, the price of a square meter in Croatia should be approximately 600 euros.